A surprising surge in job numbers in the United States has altered the trajectory of currency movements for the current year.

After interest rates were raised to their highest level in 23 years, US inflation, which had persistently exceeded the Federal Reserve’s target rate for three years, was finally showing signs of decline.

In 2021, amid the peak of post-Covid stimulus measures and with interest rates effectively at zero, inflation surged at a concerning annual rate of 7%. Even with seven rate hikes throughout 2022, transitioning from effectively zero to 4.5 percent, inflation only moderately eased, dropping to 6.5%.

In 2023, the implementation of four additional rate hikes began to effectively reduce the persistent inflation to 3.4%, remarkably without triggering a recession. Achieving such smooth transitions from aggressive rate hikes, known as soft landings, is exceedingly uncommon.

With inflation appearing to be in check, US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell hinted late last year that 2024 could see a reduction in interest rates. Lowering interest rates diminishes the yield or return on US dollar assets, consequently dampening the demand for US dollars.

Currency markets responded to this indication. From October to the conclusion of last year, the US dollar depreciated by 6.7 percent against a basket of major currencies, as investors speculated that interest rates would decrease early in the upcoming year.

Currently, markets are predicting that US interest rates will remain unchanged until the middle of the year, which contrasts with expectations for rate movements in other jurisdictions.

Considering the discrepancy in projected growth rates, as indicated by the IMF, other major economies might need to lower their interest rates sooner to stimulate economic activity. Inflation remains a concern in numerous countries, with energy prices still influenced by the conflict in Ukraine and the ongoing shipping disruptions in the Middle East.

However, these challenges are also dampening growth, especially for countries dependent on energy imports. Sluggish global demand, with the IMF forecasting global growth at 3.1 percent, is impacting trading nations such as China, as well as commodity-dependent countries like Australia and Canada, which rely on selling raw materials to countries like China. Central banks in many regions will likely prioritize addressing growth concerns over inflation, considering the current economic climate, and may opt to reduce interest rates to stimulate economic activity.

In contrast, the US possesses its own economic momentum attributed to the size and affluence of its population, along with its energy independence. Therefore, it might not necessitate cutting rates to stimulate demand.

The greater the disparity resulting from the US maintaining steady rates while other countries commence rate cuts, the more upward pressure there will be on the US dollar.

The greater the disparity resulting from the us maintaining steady rates while other countries commence rate cuts, the more upward pressure there will be on the us dollar.